Euro planning

So at last the politicians are getting round to making plans for the euro’s demise.  They’ve been in denial, of course, because they have to be; the moment they concede that they’re making plans for the failure of the euro project is the moment that they concede that the game is up, and that’s when the panic really sets in.  But planning is required, because the maelstrom of euro failure and contagion fall-out is upon us and the inevitability of it all becomes more apparent by the day.  And incredible though it may seem, there really are no plans in place for the financial tsunami that’s about to hit us.  Is it back to drachmas and escudos, nord-euros and sud-euros, or ECB money printing and eurobonds?  Nobody has a clue.  Which means that when the tsunami does strike, the damage will be much worse than any of us can imagine.  But what is interesting is how little of this is priced into the markets.  All the warning signs are blinking on red, red, red alert, but the FTSE still starts with a 5 and the dollar still trades at 1.25 to the euro.  Not for long on either count, I think.


2 thoughts on “Euro planning

  1. Do you think the USD GBP rate will take a greater hit than the USD EURO/(whatever replaces the Euro)? Are we exposed more than the Euro countries themselves?!

    • Think that the euro will be hit hardest but GBP will also fall substantially against US dollar because of UK’s exposure to eurozone. That’s been visible for about 2-3 weeks, coming down from $1.62 at the beginning of May to around $1.56 today, but well on the way towards $1.50 or below. Flight to US dollar is one-way street as the euro crisis deepens.

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